Statistical Probability:We again find personal interpretations of evidence being passed off as scientific conclusions. Statistical probability is a mathematical discipline but it is only as accurate as the numbers that are being used.
Let us begin with James Cameron’s sensationalistic claims. On NBC’s “Today,” he claimed that statisticians favored the documentary’s conclusions about the ossuaries “in the range of a couple of million to one.”1
Also, note that DSC claims that “A statistical study commissioned by the broadcasters_concludes that the probability factor is 600 to 1 in favor of this tomb being the tomb of Jesus of Nazareth and his family.”2
Moreover, “Cameron and Jacobovici said statisticians who have looked at markings on the bone boxes estimate that the probability that the remains uncovered in 1980 are not those of Joseph, Mary, Jesus, Mary Magdalene, a son of Jesus and other relatives are more than 100 to 1.”3
On Larry King’s show Simcha Jacobovici claimed that the stats were “2,000,000 to 1” in favor.
The claims were: “a couple of million to one,” “600 to 1,” “100 to 1,” “2,000,000 to one.”
This poses quite a statistical discrepancy.
Moreover, the calculation are based “on a few assumptions: that the Maria on one of the ossuaries is the mother of the Jesus found on another box, that Mariamne is his wife and that Joseph (inscribed as the nickname Jose) is his brother.”4
Darrell Bock (author of “Breaking the Da Vinci Code”) notes,
“Joseph is the second most common male name in the period. Jesus is the sixth. Matthew’s the ninth,” “Mary is the most popular female name – 21 percent of the female names of the period. So, you’re dealing with a lot of familiar names.”5
Also, note that Bar Ilan University’s Amos Kloner,
“is adamant there is no evidence to support claims that it was the burial site of Jesus_’I’m a scholar. I do scholarly work which has nothing to do with documentary film-making’ he told AFP in a telephone interview_
‘Who says that ‘Maria’ is Magdalena and ‘Judah’ is the son of Jesus? It cannot be proved. These are very popular and common names from the 1st century BC,’ said the academic at Israel’s Bar Ilan University. Kloner said that of 900 burial caves found within four kilometres (two and a half miles) of Jerusalem’s Old City and from the same era, the name Jesus or Yeshu was found 71 times, and that ‘Jesus son of Joseph’ had also been found.”6
At the end of the essay Archeological Identity Theft the author makes short work of the statistical calculations.